2023 Q2 QUARTERLY COMMENTARY

July 01, 2023

During the first half of the year, equity markets shrugged off persistent recession fears, the failure of several large regional banks, a debt ceiling battle, and the continuation of the…

2022 Q4 QUARTERLY COMMENTARY

January 01, 2023

2022 was a year to forget for investors. U.S. equities had the worst year since 2008, U.S. bonds the worst year since the 1970s. Stocks and bonds both provided negative…

2022 Q3 QUARTERLY COMMENTARY

October 01, 2022

The short-lived summer market rally faded in September, with stocks and bonds finishing with negative returns for the quarter and returning to bear market territory for the year. Concerns that…

2022 Q2 QUARTERLY COMMENTARY

July 01, 2022

A poor first half of the year ended with major equity indexes in bear market territory and bond prices falling at the fastest pace in decades. Concerns about inflation and…

2022 Q1 QUARTERLY COMMENTARY

April 01, 2022

The war and humanitarian tragedy in Ukraine was the dominant event during the first quarter. However, the war was far from the only market-moving development during the quarter: Inflation reached…

2021 Q4 QUARTERLY COMMENTARY

January 01, 2022

The bull market in stocks continued in 2021.  There were significant shifts in sentiment and market leadership during the year, with some similarity to the pattern in 2020.  Equities rose…

2021 Q3 QUARTERLY COMMENTARY

October 01, 2021

Global equities declined slightly in the third quarter, with September losses a consequence of fears about slowing economic momentum, rising inflation and policy uncertainty.  Global equities, as represented by the…

2021 Q2 QUARTERLY COMMENTARY

July 01, 2021

Equities continued to rise in the second quarter amidst optimism about economic growth and Covid-19 containment. Global equities, as represented by the MSCI All Country World Index, rose by 7.4%…

2021 Q1 QUARTERLY COMMENTARY

April 01, 2021

U.S. stocks continued gaining ground in the first quarter, supported by progress in vaccinating Americans and optimism about economic reopening.  The segments of the market expected to benefit from a…

2020 Q4 QUARTERLY COMMENTARY

January 01, 2021

U.S. stocks reached all-time highs in 2020.  The market’s rise was surprising, given nearly 20 million reported coronavirus infections and 345,000 fatalities, an estimated GDP decline of 3.5%, an estimated…

QUARTERLY COMMENTARY Q3: THIRD QUARTER REVIEW

October 01, 2020

Global equities, as represented by the MSCI All Country World Index, rose by more than 8% in the third quarter and have gained more than 1% year-to-date through September 30. …

QUARTERLY COMMENTARY Q2: SECOND QUARTER REVIEW

July 01, 2020

Global equities, as represented by the MSCI All Country World Index, rose by more than 19% in the second quarter, recovering a significant amount of the losses from the first…

QUARTERLY COMMENTARY Q1: FIRST QUARTER REVIEW

April 01, 2020

The year started with optimism about economic growth and hope that some of the left-behind segments of the market would stage a comeback in 2020.  Fear replaced optimism as Covid-19…

QUARTERLY COMMENTARY Q4: FOURTH QUARTER REVIEW

January 01, 2020

Equities reached record highs in 2019, a welcome rebound after a tumultuous end to 2018.  The avoidance of the worst-case outcomes feared at the end of 2018 contributed to the…

QUARTERLY COMMENTARY Q3: THIRD QUARTER REVIEW

October 01, 2019

Global equities declined slightly during the third quarter, with markets unable to move decisively in an environment of heightened uncertainty.

Global equities, as represented by the MSCI All Country World…

QUARTERLY COMMENTARY   Q2: SECOND QUARTER REVIEW

July 01, 2019

Equities rose in the second quarter despite rising trade tensions with China and slowing economic growth in much of the world.  President Donald Trump’s threat in May to impose additional…

QUARTERLY COMMENTARY Q1: FIRST QUARTER REVIEW

April 01, 2019

Equities rebounded strongly to start the year, as many of the fears that dominated the headlines in December faded from view.  The longest government shutdown in history ended after 35…

QUARTERLY COMMENTARY Q4: FOURTH QUARTER REVIEW

January 01, 2019

Sentiment turned sharply negative in the 4th quarter, setting the stage for 2018 to conclude with near double-digit losses for global equities. The market downturn was in sharp contrast to…

QUARTERLY COMMENTARY Q3: THIRD QUARTER REVIEW

October 01, 2018

Second quarter U.S. GDP growth of more than 4% was the second-strongest since 2014, setting the stage for a third quarter dominated by U.S. equities. U.S. companies reported strong earnings…

QUARTERLY COMMENTARY Q2: SECOND QUARTER REVIEW

July 01, 2018

Markets during the second quarter were seemingly caught in a “tug of war” between optimism and pessimism, as global equities struggled to break out of a trading range. Enthusiasm about…

QUARTERLY COMMENTARY Q1: FIRST QUARTER REVIEW

April 01, 2018

The first quarter was turbulent, with the widespread exuberance of January replaced by a more uncertain outlook in February and March. Optimism about the global economy abounded in January, and…

QUARTERLY COMMENTARY Q4: FOURTH QUARTER REVIEW

January 01, 2018

TFC started 2017 expecting moderate worldwide economic growth, but were concerned about the potential for trade protectionism in the U.S., populist movements in Europe and tensions with China and North…

QUARTERLY COMMENTARY Q2: SECOND QUARTER REVIEW

July 12, 2017

Equity markets continued to rise in the second quarter, boosted by positive global economic momentum and strong corporate earnings growth. The combination of synchronized global growth and low inflation overcame…

QUARTERLY COMMENTARY Q1: FIRST QUARTER REVIEW

April 12, 2017

Equity markets extended post-election gains during Q1, helped by positive economic indicators and expectations for rising earnings growth. The earnings recession is over; recovery of 8-10% is underway. Enthusiasm about…

QUARTERLY COMMENTARY Q4: 2016 REVIEW AND 2017 MARKET OUTLOOK

January 13, 2017

2016 was much like a play in three acts. Act 1 started with concerns over China and falling oil prices in January, concerns that eased during February and March. In…

QUARTERLY COMMENTARY Q3: MARKETS RISE DESPITE CONTINUED ANXIETY

October 13, 2016

Global equities advanced in the third quarter, led by segments of the market that were out of favor in recent years. Emerging market equities, value stocks and U.S. small company…

QUARTERLY COMMENTARY Q2: VOLATILITY MAY BE HERE TO STAY

July 13, 2016

Global equities rose in the second quarter and for the first half of the year, despite some abrupt shifts in momentum along the way. The UK referendum about whether to…

QUARTERLY COMMENTARY Q1: FIRST QUARTER MARKET ACTIVITY

April 01, 2016

Global equities ended the first quarter at nearly the same level as they started the year. The beginning and ending points, however, mask the roller coaster ride during the quarter.…

QUARTERLY COMMENTARY Q4: FORECASTING SEASON

January 15, 2016

Every January, investment firms, economists and commentators offer their fearless forecasts about the year to come. Large financial firms often offer “safe” predictions: middle-of-the-road projections that are encouraging enough to…

QUARTERLY COMMENTARY Q4: FORECASTING SEASON

January 15, 2016

Every January, investment firms, economists and commentators offer their fearless forecasts about the year to come. Large financial firms often offer “safe” predictions: middle-of-the-road projections that are encouraging enough to…

QUARTERLY COMMENTARY Q3: REPRICING RISK IN THE EQUITY AND BOND MARKETS.

October 08, 2015

Generally speaking, equity markets climb stealthily to new high ground, but fall off precipitously when investor sentiment turns negative. Sentiment and emotion move financial markets in the short run. Secular…

QUARTERLY COMMENTARY Q2: WHAT DRIVES ECONOMIES AND FINANCIAL MARKETS?

July 10, 2015

The financial media buzz of the moment focuses on why investors should lower their portfolio return expectations. For those following a globally diversified approach, this assertion tends to resonate with…

QUARTERLY COMMENTARY Q1: PROSPECTIVE PORTFOLIO RETURNS IN A DIMINISHED ECONOMIC GROWTH ENVIRONMENT

April 15, 2015

Since the days of Tulipmania in the seventeenth century, investors, speculators and pundits have searched for the answers to the question of what ultimately drives financial markets, and it remains…